John Carlisle

Bio

I am 49 years old. I am a consultant in anaesthesia and intensive care. I’ve loved science since I was a child. You can imagine how I dislike fabricated science, not so much due to the dishonesty, but because the authors usually replace the complexity and richness of natural numerical patterns with ‘nice’ symmetrical or repeated sequences. Garish.


Finding Fraudsters

I am going to tell you how to spot some fraudsters by analysing their made up numbers.
The exposure of fabricated numbers in published papers by eagle-eyed readers has been due to sporadic serendipity. I am going to describe a semi-automated method that you can take away with you to do some sleuthing. I am going to describe what I found when I analysed over 4500 papers.

Surgery: What’s the risk?

I am going to give you a tool to help you, your relatives and your patients decide whether to have an operation.

I want to live a life that is both happy and long. If I have a structural disease that could be fixed with an operation – for instance a cancer or an aortic aneurysm – I’d like to know whether my long and happy life is more likely with or without surgery. And I don’t just want to know whether I’ll be alive or dead in 30 days, which is the most common published metric of surgical success or failure. I have developed a tool that accurately predicts survival years after repair of abdominal aortic aneurysm and that helps patients decide whether to have surgery or not. The tool also explains how one piece of research has been misunderstood, a misunderstanding that has resulted in two general mistakes: surgeons operating on aneurysms when they should not; surgeons not operating on aneurysms when they should.


I want to live a life that is both happy and long. If I have a structural disease that could be fixed with an operation – for instance a cancer or an aortic aneurysm – I’d like to know whether my long and happy life is more likely with or without surgery. And I don’t just want to know whether I’ll be alive or dead in 30 days, which is the most common published metric of surgical success or failure. I have developed a tool that accurately predicts survival years after repair of abdominal aortic aneurysm and that helps patients decide whether to have surgery or not. The tool also explains how one piece of research has been misunderstood, a misunderstanding that has resulted in two general mistakes: surgeons operating on aneurysms when they should not; surgeons not operating on aneurysms when they should.



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